“Currently, more than 60 percent of U.S. Twitter users fail to return the following month, or in other words, Twitter’s audience retention rate, or the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is currently about 40 percent. For most of the past 12 months, pre-Oprah, Twitter has languished below 30 percent retention… By plotting the minimum retention rates for different Internet audience sizes, it is clear that a retention rate of 40 percent will limit a site’s growth to about a 10 percent reach figure. To be clear, a high retention rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite. There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones after a certain point.”

The summary offered by the authors of the study is simply, “Twitter has enjoyed a nice ride over the last few months, but it will not be able to sustain its meteoric rise without establishing a higher level of user loyalty.” Some have related this to similar studies published about Second Life, which also enjoyed a wave of massive media hype spurring new users to register, many of whom soon quit or never visited the service again. Do or could some of these same users quit over time, rejoin under different names or accounts, or migrate to third party Twitter apps that mange their message stream on the service? Sure, but more users are sticking with mySpace and Facebook.

Much of the problem is in the hugely inflated touting of Twitter as the next AT&T or the most revolutionary development in mass communication after a century of paradigm changing advances in technology. Now Business Week quotes the Nielsen blog with an article titled: “Twitter is a Fad”.  This is further taken up by the “anti-Twitter as a philosophy” people, who can’t stand the fact that people are broadcasting their own banalities and vanities… probably most symbolized by the recent Jon Stewart attacks on the site.

I personally see Twitter as the leading force with Facebook in the development of the “Stream” – the flow of real time information, personal updates, status messages, link recommendations, friend’s messages, business updates, etc. which are bookmarked / followed based on a user’s personal choices and filtered until they become a meaningful and helpful running bulletin board of information. A user may see the Stream as a media channel similar to instant messages, blogs, websites, phone, TV, radio, or other traditional and new media sources, combining many aspects of each but emerging different. There is a leveling of the playing field similar to other digital / viral media, new possibilities of direct communication, an aspect of reality TV, social networking and chat merged with search and data mining.

It was a really big change when so many of the major media sites added “digg this” or “add to delicious” tags on nearly every one of their published pages. Social bookmarking has risen as a major trend, many start ups have vaulted to huge traffic, nice deals, and take-overs on the rise of its popularity… but those sites likely also had similar (or worse) statistics to Twitter in regards to user retention. A good point that validates the Nielsen report would be a look at social bookmarking’s statistics now, after the hype & establishment as a mainstream web publishing medium. My estimate is that massive numbers of users have quit Digg, Delicious, Mixx, and similar sites following their explosive / expansive growth, and the sector will probably average out with around 10% (or less) audience on the web collectively in the near term… what is also being projected (or debated) about Twitter.

With regard to the Stream, Facebook has an obvious advantage over Twitter. Facebook and Twitter both have increasingly open APIs allowing developers to access Stream data. Live search is trending as a very hot topic and many expect it to be the next big development in the search industry. So many mash-ups aggregating data from across so many different social networks, but few have really emerged as high traffic, popular sites. In the end, I see the “microblogging”-Tweet-Status Update format becoming more and more ubiquitous across all web channels and a “game changing” app appearing that synergizes and allows all types of filters and customizations from all the different social media sources.

This is a post from Web Dev News, a site brought to you by Xavisys Web Development.

Nielsen Online – Twitter User Retention 50% Less Than Facebook & mySpace

“MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe and News Corporation’s Chief Digital Officer Jonathan Miller, announced today that, by mutual agreement, Mr. DeWolfe will not be renewing his contract and will be stepping down in the near future. Mr. DeWolfe will continue to serve on the board of MySpace China and will be a strategic advisor to the Company. Additionally, Mr. Miller announced that he was in discussions with Tom Anderson, MySpace’s president, about Mr. Anderson assuming a new role in the organization. “

“The company did not immediately name a replacement, and a company spokesperson declined to comment, but some speculate that former Facebook COO Owen Van Natta is a leading candidate.”

According to traffic statistics, mySpace is still the largest social network in the US, but was down in membership overall 4% on the year, while US membership for Facebook rose 78% in March alone. Typically, founders leaving a site after a sell out to a corporate conglomerate means that the site is surely losing its original message, community, spirit, and philosophy. Huge changes have come to the site with the relaunch of mySpace Music; for underground pop and hip hop networking, promotion, clubs, concerts, and the like, mySpace is still the undisputed champion. Yet as it becomes a platform for mass, mainstream, commercialized music and video distribution, maybe Anderson and DeWolfe weren’t the best point men for the job.

The Wall St. Journal reports a long history of conflict between the pair and News Corp over the management of the company since the takeover:

“DeWolfe and Anderson still chafed at the fact that MySpace ad sales were taken over by executives at Fox Interactive Media, according to people familiar with the situation. The rank and file of MySpace was also angry that their stock options were canceled after the acquisition and that they were forced to move from Santa Monica to Beverly Hills, the people said.”

“Relations fell apart further. Mr. DeWolfe ignored suggestions from Fox Interactive Media President Ross Levinsohn about ways to improve the site. Mr. DeWolfe also sought to amend a $900 million advertising deal that News Corp. cut with Google Inc. — delaying its implementation, the people said.”

“Mr. Levinsohn also clashed with Mr. Anderson, who is president of the site. Mr. Anderson controlled the product development and was criticized for not moving fast. In April 2006, MySpace bought the online karaoke service kSolo. MySpace launched the karaoke feature on its site in April 2008 — two years later.”

“The tension between the MySpace founders and News Corp. eventually led to Mr. Levinsohn’s dismissal in November 2006. He was succeeded by his distant cousin, Peter Levinsohn, who eventually gave Mr. DeWolfe control of the advertising sales at MySpace that he had sought.”

…Three top MySpace executives, including Amit Kapur, former chief operating officer, left the company in March to work on a start-up. MySpace has yet to name successors for those positions.”

TechCrunch has also released the email from News Corp Digital Media CEO Jonathon Miller to employees announcing the dismissals:

“I am writing to share the news that MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe will be stepping down from his executive role in the near future. He has agreed to serve as a strategic advisor to the Company and will remain on the board of MySpace China. In addition, I am currently in discussions with MySpace President Tom Anderson regarding his role within the organization.”

“I want to take this opportunity to thank them both for their incredible contributions to the Company, and for pioneering one of the greatest social media revolutions of our time. I wish Chris nothing but the best in any new endeavors and, like many in this industry, am eager to witness his next innovations. I understand the importance of having a dynamic, inspiring and innovative management team, and am dedicated to ensuring that MySpace continues to benefit from the highest levels of passion and enthusiasm.”

For the most part, I tend to agree with J Miller on this one… I look forward to hearing about the next project that Tom Anderson & Chris DeWolfe begin to work on.

Background:

http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080219/owen-van-natta-to-leave-facebook/

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10490683/1/new-myspace-ceo-may-be-ex-facebook-exec.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

http://twitter.com/amitk

This is a post from Web Dev News, a site brought to you by Xavisys Web Development.

mySpace Founders Forced Out on Executive Pay & Culture Clash